Instructions (SCMG Week 3) Week 3: Judgmental Forecasting Course Objectives: CO3: Evaluate Forecasting methods, predictability factors, and causes of error in Forecasting Prompt: This week you will

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Instructions (SCMG Week 3)   Week 3: Judgmental Forecasting

Course Objectives:

CO3: Evaluate Forecasting methods, predictability factors, and causes of error in Forecasting

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Prompt:This week you will be researching and writing on one of the most basic methods of forecasting: Judgmental Forecasting. After reading Chapter 3 in Chase (Overview of Forecasting Methods), access the three excellent resources on Judgmental Forecasting hyperlinked below. Use all three, for they each provide a different perspective on the broad methodology of forecasting future demand using experience, insight, and business savvy. You may also want to search the internet for any additional resources that add to the lesson material in chapter 3. As the instructions advise in previous assignments, if you do add additional sources, do not use advertisements of any kind, including consultancies and software. Use the template attached to this assignment for your submission. The template includes sections to guide you this week on your essay assignment to explain the methodology of Judgmental Forecasting.

Judgmental Forecasting Resources:

  • Forecasting Principles and Practices (1 page)
  • A Comparison of Judgmental Forecasting Techniques (9 pages)
  • The Delphi Method (1 pages)

Instructions:

  • Utilize the template attached below for this assignment, it has the sections already formatted for you to insert your findings by subject/question.
  • Label your submission document as follows: firstinitiallastname_Assignment_3 (something like JJohnston_Assignment_3)
  • Minimum 1000 words of content of strategic material, double spaced. Content requirement does not include cover page, abstract, nor reference pages.
  • Source, Cite, and Reference a minimum of three (3) expert resources to provide support for main points in your essay. Each resource is to add to the content through either paraphrasing the author’s position on the subject or a direct quote. Refrain from excessive use of quotes in your response (less than 5% of the 1000 words).
  • Resources and citations are formatted according to APA (7th edition) style and formatting.
  • Once you submit your document to the assignment folder it will automatically be loaded to TURNITIN.COM for plagiarism. Make sure your quotes have quotations and correct (to APA) in-text citations and a reference at the end of the paper.
  • Plagiarism can result in a zero for this assignment:

    • When using another author’s exact words insert quotation marks and a citation including year of publication and page or paragraph number
    • When paraphrasing, do not use ANY of the author’s words, use your own take on the author’s meaning and context.
  • There are no late assignments accepted after the last day of the course unless: (a) prior approval has been obtained from the professor or (b) you have an approved 30 day extension.

Instructions (SCMG Week 3) Week 3: Judgmental Forecasting Course Objectives: CO3: Evaluate Forecasting methods, predictability factors, and causes of error in Forecasting Prompt: This week you will
Judgmental Forecasting Course and Assignment Student Name Overview & Introduction Use this section to introduce your paper and the resources you will use to describe Judgmental Forecasting. You may erase this notation, but only up to where the sentence starts or you will eliminate the formatting. What is Judgmental Forecasting The heading above would be used to divide your paper into sections based on content. This is the first level of heading, and it is centered and bolded with each word of four letters or more capitalized. The heading should be a short descriptor of the section. Most papers will have headings or subheadings to organize the paper into sections. Where is Judgmental Forecasting used Most Effectively? The subheading above would be used if there are several sections within the topic labeled in a heading. The subheading is flush left and bolded, with each word of four letters or more capitalized. Examples of how Judgmental Forecasting is Used Most Effectively Xxx Advantages and Disadvantages of Judgmental Forecasting Xxx Advantages Xxx Disadvantages Xxx The Delphi Method of Judgmental Forecasting In this section, thoroughly explain the use of, advantages of, and an example of the Delphi method of forecasting. You may erase these instructions prior to inserting your narrative. References (Example of a web-based Reference) U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. (2003). Managing asthma: A guide for schools (NIH Publication No. 02-2650). Retrieved from http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/prof/asthma/asth_sch.pdf This is a correctly cited Web address
Instructions (SCMG Week 3) Week 3: Judgmental Forecasting Course Objectives: CO3: Evaluate Forecasting methods, predictability factors, and causes of error in Forecasting Prompt: This week you will
Ch ap te r 4 J u d gm en ta l f o re ca sts Fore ca stin g u sin g j u dgem en t i s c o m mon i n p ra ctic e . I n m an y c a se s, j u dgm en ta l fo re ca stin g i s t h e o n ly o p tio n , s u ch a s w hen t h ere i s a c o m ple te l a ck o f h is to ric a l d ata , o r w hen a n ew p ro d u ct i s b ein g l a u n ch ed , o r w hen a n ew c o m petit o r e n te rs t h e m ark et, o r d u rin g c o m ple te ly n ew a n d u n iq u e m ark et c o n dit io n s. F or e x am ple , i n D ece m ber 2 0 12 , t h e A ustr a lia n g o vern m en t w as t h e f ir s t i n t h e w orld t o p ass l e g is la tio n t h at b an n ed t h e u se o f c o m pan y l o go s o n c ig are tte p ack ets , a n d r e q u ir e d a ll c ig are tte p ack ets t o b e a d ark g re en c o lo u r. J u dgem en t m ust b e a p plie d i n o rd er t o f o re ca st t h e effe ct o f s u ch a p olic y , a s t h ere a re n o h is to ric a l p re ce d en ts . T here a re a ls o s it u atio n s w here t h e d ata a re i n co m ple te , o r o n ly b eco m e a v aila b le a ft e r so m e d ela y . F or e x am ple , c e n tr a l b an ks i n clu de j u dgem en t w hen f o re ca stin g t h e cu rr e n t l e v el o f e co n om ic a ctiv it y , a p ro ce d u re k n ow n a s n ow ca stin g, a s G D P i s o n ly a v aila b le o n a q u arte rly b asis . R ese a rc h i n t h is a re a h as s h ow n t h at t h e a ccu ra cy o f j u dgm en ta l f o re ca stin g i m pro ves w hen t h e f o re ca ste r h as ( i) i m porta n t d om ain k n ow le d ge, a n d ( ii) m ore t im ely , u p-to – d ate i n fo rm atio n . A j u dgm en ta l a p pro ach c a n b e q u ic k t o a d ju st t o s u ch c h an ges, in fo rm atio n o r e v en ts . O ver t h e y ea rs , t h e a cce p ta n ce o f j u dgm en ta l f o re ca stin g a s a s c ie n ce h as i n cre a se d , a s h as t h e r e co gn it io n o f i t s n eed . M ore i m porta n tly , t h e q u alit y o f j u dgm en ta l f o re ca sts h as a ls o i m pro ved , a s a d ir e ct r e su lt o f r e co gn is in g t h at i m pro vem en ts i n j u dgm en ta l fo re ca stin g c a n b e a ch ie v ed b y i m ple m en tin g w ell- str u ctu re d a n d s y ste m atic a p pro ach es. I t i s i m porta n t t o r e co gn is e t h at j u dgm en ta l f o re ca stin g i s s u bje ctiv e a n d co m es w it h l im it a tio n s. H ow ev er, i m ple m en tin g s y ste m atic a n d w ell- str u ctu re d a p pro ach es c a n c o n fin e t h ese l im it a tio n s a n d m ark ed ly i m pro ve f o re ca st a ccu ra cy . T here a re t h re e g en era l s e ttin gs i n w hic h j u dgm en ta l f o re ca stin g i s u se d : ( i) t h ere a re n o a v aila b le d ata , s o t h at s ta tis tic a l m eth od s a re n ot a p plic a b le a n d j u dgm en ta l fo re ca stin g i s t h e o n ly f e a sib le a p pro ach ; ( ii) d ata a re a v aila b le , s ta tis tic a l f o re ca sts a re g en era te d , a n d t h ese a re t h en a d ju ste d u sin g j u dgem en t; a n d ( ii i) d ata a re a v aila b le a n d sta tis tic a l a n d j u dgm en ta l f o re ca sts a re g en era te d i n dep en den tly a n d t h en c o m bin ed . 4 We s h ou ld c la rif y t h at w hen d ata a re a v aila b le , a p ply in g s ta tis tic a l m eth od s ( s u ch a s th ose d is c u sse d i n o th er c h ap te rs o f t h is b o ok), i s p re fe ra b le a n d s h ou ld a lw ay s b e u se d a s a s ta rtin g p oin t. S ta tis tic a l f o re ca sts a re g en era lly s u perio r t o g en era tin g f o re ca sts u sin g o n ly j u dgem en t. F or t h e m ajo rit y o f t h e c h ap te r, w e f o cu s o n t h e f ir s t s e ttin g w here n o d ata a re a v aila b le , a n d i n t h e l a st s e ctio n w e d is c u ss t h e j u dgm en ta l ad ju stm en t o f s ta tis tic a l f o re ca sts . W e d is c u ss c o m bin in g f o re ca sts i n S ectio n 12 .4 . B ib lio gra p hy Law re n ce , M ., G ood w in , P ., O ’C on nor, M ., & Ö nkal, D . ( 2 0 06 ). J u dgm en ta l f o re ca stin g: A r e v ie w o f p ro gre ss o ver t h e l a st 2 5 y ea rs . I n te rn atio n al J o u rn al o f F ore ca stin g , 2 2 (3 ), 4 9 3– 518 . [ D OI] 4 . L aw re n ce , G ood w in , O ’C on nor, & Ö nkal ( 2 0 06 )
Instructions (SCMG Week 3) Week 3: Judgmental Forecasting Course Objectives: CO3: Evaluate Forecasting methods, predictability factors, and causes of error in Forecasting Prompt: This week you will
4.3 T h e D elp hi m eth od The D elp h i m eth od w as i n ven te d b y O la f H elm er a n d N orm an D alk ey o f t h e R an d Corp ora tio n i n t h e 1 9 50 s f o r t h e p u rp ose o f a d dre ssin g a s p ecif ic m ilit a ry p ro ble m . T he m eth od r e lie s o n t h e k ey a ssu m ptio n t h at f o re ca sts f r o m a g ro u p a re g en era lly m ore a ccu ra te t h an t h ose f r o m i n div id u als . T he a im o f t h e D elp h i m eth od i s t o c o n str u ct co n se n su s f o re ca sts f r o m a g ro u p o f e x p erts i n a s tr u ctu re d i t e ra tiv e m an ner. A f a cilit a to r i s a p poin te d i n o rd er t o i m ple m en t a n d m an ag e t h e p ro ce ss. T he D elp h i m eth od g en era ll y i n vo lv es t h e f o llo w in g s ta g es: 1. A p an el o f e x p erts i s a sse m ble d . 2. F ore ca stin g t a sk s/c h alle n ges a re s e t a n d d is tr ib u te d t o t h e e x p erts . 3 . E xp erts r e tu rn i n it ia l f o re ca sts a n d j u stif ic a tio n s. T hese a re c o m pile d a n d su m m aris e d i n o rd er t o p ro vid e f e ed back . 4 . F eed back i s p ro vid ed t o t h e e x p erts , w ho n ow r e v ie w t h eir f o re ca sts i n l ig h t o f t h e fe ed back . T his s te p m ay b e i t e ra te d u n til a s a tis fa cto ry l e v el o f c o n se n su s i s r e a ch ed . 5. F in al f o re ca sts a re c o n str u cte d b y a g gre g atin g t h e e x p erts ’ f o re ca sts . E ach s ta g e o f t h e D elp h i m eth od c o m es w it h i t s o w n c h alle n ges. I n w hat f o llo w s, w e pro vid e s o m e s u ggestio n s a n d d is c u ssio n s a b o u t e a ch o n e o f t h ese . E xp erts a n d a n onym it y T he f ir s t c h alle n ge o f t h e f a cilit a to r i s t o i d en tif y a g ro u p o f e x p erts w ho c a n c o n tr ib u te t o t h e f o re ca stin g t a sk . T he u su al s u ggestio n i s s o m ew here b etw een 5 a n d 2 0 e x p erts w it h d iv ers e e x p ertis e . E xp erts s u bm it f o re ca sts a n d a ls o p ro vid e d eta ile d q u alit a tiv e ju stif ic a tio n s f o r t h ese . A k ey f e a tu re o f t h e D elp h i m eth od i s t h at t h e p artic ip atin g e x p erts r e m ain a n on ym ou s at a ll t im es. T his m ea n s t h at t h e e x p erts c a n not b e i n flu en ce d b y p olit ic a l a n d s o cia l p re ssu re s i n t h eir f o re ca sts . F u rth erm ore , a ll e x p erts a re g iv en a n e q u al s a y a n d a ll a re h eld a cco u n ta b le f o r t h eir f o re ca sts . T his a v o id s t h e s it u atio n w here a g ro u p m eetin g i s h eld a n d s o m e m em bers d o n ot c o n tr ib u te , w hile o th ers d om in ate . I t a ls o p re v en ts 7 mem bers e x ertin g u n du e i n flu en ce b ase d o n s e n io rit y o r p ers o n alit y . T here h av e b een su gg estio n s t h at e v en s o m eth in g a s s im ple a s t h e s e a tin g a rra n gem en ts i n a g ro u p se tt in g c a n i n flu en ce t h e g ro u p d yn am ic s. F u rth erm ore , t h ere i s a m ple e v id en ce t h at a g ro u p m eetin g s e ttin g p ro m ote s e n th usia sm a n d i n flu en ce s i n div id u al j u dgem en t, le a d in g t o o p tim is m a n d o verc o n fid en ce . A b y- pro d u ct o f a n on ym it y i s t h at t h e e x p erts d o n ot n eed t o m eet a s a g ro u p i n a p h ysic a l l o ca tio n . A n i m porta n t a d van ta g e o f t h is i s t h at i t i n cre a se s t h e l ik elih ood o f gath erin g e x p erts w it h d iv ers e s k ills a n d e x p ertis e f r o m v ary in g l o ca tio n s. F u rth erm ore , i t m ak es t h e p ro ce ss c o st- effe ctiv e b y e lim in atin g t h e e x p en se a n d in co n ven ie n ce o f t r a v el, a n d i t m ak es i t f le x ib le , a s t h e e x p erts o n ly h av e t o m eet a c o m m on d ea d lin e f o r s u bm it tin g f o re ca sts , r a th er t h an h av in g t o s e t a c o m mon m eetin g t im e. S ett in g t h e f o re ca stin g t a sk i n a D elp hi In a D elp h i s e ttin g, i t m ay b e u se fu l t o c o n du ct a p re lim in ary r o u n d o f i n fo rm atio n gath erin g f r o m t h e e x p erts b efo re s e ttin g t h e f o re ca stin g t a sk s. A lt e rn ativ ely , a s ex p erts s u bm it t h eir i n it ia l f o re ca sts a n d j u stif ic a tio n s, v alu ab le i n fo rm atio n w hic h i s n ot s h are d b etw een a ll e x p erts c a n b e i d en tif ie d b y t h e f a cilit a to r w hen c o m pilin g t h e fe ed back . F e ed back Feed back t o t h e e x p erts s h ou ld i n clu de s u m mary s ta tis tic s o f t h e f o re ca sts a n d o u tlin es o f q u alit a tiv e j u stif ic a tio n s. N um eric a l d ata s u m marie s a n d g ra p h ic a l r e p re se n ta tio n s ca n b e u se d t o s u m maris e t h e e x p erts ’ f o re ca sts . A s t h e f e ed back i s c o n tr o lle d b y t h e f a cilit a to r, t h ere m ay b e s c o p e t o d ir e ct a tte n tio n an d i n fo rm atio n f r o m t h e e x p erts t o a re a s w here i t i s m ost r e q u ir e d . F or e x am ple , t h e fa cilit a to r m ay d ir e ct t h e e x p erts ’ a tte n tio n t o r e sp on se s t h at f a ll o u ts id e t h e in te rq u artile r a n ge, a n d t h e q u alit a tiv e j u stif ic a tio n f o r s u ch f o re ca sts . 8 It e ra tio n The p ro ce ss o f t h e e x p erts s u bm it tin g f o re ca sts , r e ce iv in g f e ed back , a n d r e v ie w in g th eir f o re ca sts i n l ig h t o f t h e f e ed back , i s r e p ea te d u n til a s a tis fa cto ry l e v el o f co n se n su s b etw een t h e e x p erts i s r e a ch ed . S atis fa cto ry c o n se n su s d oes n ot m ea n co m ple te c o n verg en ce i n t h e f o re ca st v alu e; i t s im ply m ea n s t h at t h e v aria b ilit y o f t h e re sp on se s h as d ecre a se d t o a s a tis fa cto ry l e v el. U su ally t w o o r t h re e r o u n ds a re s u ff ic ie n t. E xp erts a re m ore l ik ely t o d ro p o u t a s t h e n um ber o f i t e ra tio n s i n cre a se s, s o to o m an y r o u n ds s h ou ld b e a v o id ed . F in al f o re ca sts T he f in al f o re ca sts a re u su ally c o n str u cte d b y g iv in g e q u al w eig h t t o a ll o f t h e e x p erts ’ fo re ca sts . H ow ev er, t h e f a cilit a to r s h ou ld k eep i n m in d t h e p ossib ilit y o f e x tr e m e v alu es w hic h c a n d is to rt t h e f in al f o re ca st. L im it a tio n s a n d v a ria tio n s Apply in g t h e D elp h i m eth od c a n b e t im e c o n su m in g. I n a g ro u p m eetin g, f in al f o re ca sts c a n p ossib ly b e r e a ch ed i n h ou rs o r e v en m in ute s — s o m eth in g w hic h i s a lm ost im possib le t o d o i n a D elp h i s e tt in g. I f i t i s t a k in g a l o n g t im e t o r e a ch a c o n se n su s i n a D elp h i s e ttin g, t h e p an el m ay l o se i n te re st a n d c o h esiv en ess. In a g ro u p s e ttin g, p ers o n al i n te ra ctio n s c a n l e a d t o q u ic k er a n d b ette r c la rif ic a tio n s o f q u alit a tiv e j u stif ic a tio n s. A v aria tio n o f t h e D elp h i m eth od w hic h i s o ft e n a p plie d i s t h e “estim ate – ta lk – estim ate ” m eth od , w here t h e e x p erts c a n i n te ra ct b etw een i t e ra tio n s, a lt h ou gh t h e f o re ca st s u bm is sio n s c a n s till r e m ain a n on ym ou s. A d is a d van ta g e o f t h is v aria tio n i s t h e p ossib ilit y o f t h e l o u dest p ers o n e x ertin g u n du e i n flu en ce . T h e f a cil it a to r The r o le o f t h e f a cilit a to r i s o f t h e u tm ost i m porta n ce . T he f a cilit a to r i s l a rg ely r e sp on sib le f o r t h e d esig n a n d a d m in is tr a tio n o f t h e D elp h i p ro ce ss. T he f a cilit a to r i s a ls o r e sp on sib le f o r p ro vid in g f e ed back t o t h e e x p erts a n d g en era tin g t h e f in al fo re ca sts . I n t h is r o le , t h e f a cilit a to r n eed s t o b e e x p erie n ce d e n ou gh t o r e co gn is e a re a s th at m ay n eed m ore a tte n tio n , a n d t o d ir e ct t h e e x p erts ’ a tte n tio n t o t h ese . A ls o , a s th ere i s n o f a ce – to – fa ce i n te ra ctio n b etw een t h e e x p erts , t h e f a cilit a to r i s r e sp on sib le f o r d is se m in atin g i m porta n t i n fo rm atio n . T he e ffic ie n cy a n d e ffe ctiv en ess o f t h e fa cilit a to r c a n d ra m atic a lly i n cre a se t h e p ro bab ilit y o f a s u cce ssfu l D elp h i m eth od i n a j u dgm en ta l f o re ca stin g s e ttin g. B ib lio gra p hy Bueh le r, R ., M esse rv ey , D ., & G rif fin , D . ( 2 0 05). C olla b o ra tiv e p la n nin g a n d p re d ic tio n : D oes g ro u p d is c u ssio n a ffe ct o p tim is tic b ia se s i n t im e e stim atio n ? O rg an iz a tio n al B eh av io r a n d H um an D ecis io n P ro ce sse s , 9 7 (1 ), 4 7– 63. [ D OI] R ow e, G . ( 2 0 07). A g u id e t o D elp h i . F ore sig h t: T he I n te rn atio n al J o u rn al o f A pplie d F ore ca stin g , ( 8 ), 1 1– 16 . R ow e, G ., & W rig h t, G . ( 1 9 99). T he D elp h i t e ch n iq u e a s a f o re ca stin g t o ol: I s su es a n d an aly sis . I n te rn atio n al J o u rn al o f F ore ca stin g , 1 5 (4 ), 3 5 3– 37 5 . [ D OI] 7 . F or f u rth er r e a d in g, r e fe r t o : R ow e ( 2 0 07 ); R ow e & W rig h t ( 1 9 99 ) 8. B ueh le r, M esse rv ey , & G rif fin ( 2 0 05 )

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